Premier League · kickoff Sat 27 Feb 2027, 15:00 UTC. Too close to call. The model has Aston Villa at 38% and Chelsea at 37%, 1 percentage point apart. Under 16 points the model's named side has won 49% of the matches that had a winner, so it does not call this one. How that line is set.
Aston Villa 38%Draw 25%Chelsea 37%
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Lower confidence in this one.
Aston Villa: 36% of last season's minutes were played by players who have since left. The rating is fitted on results, so it has not priced that in yet.
Chelsea: 28% of last season's minutes were played by players who have since left. The rating is fitted on results, so it has not priced that in yet.
The model is fitted on results, so it prices a squad by what it did, not by who is in it now.
This prediction was logged before kickoff on 2026-10-06 and will be graded in our public track record, hits and misses included.