Premier League · kickoff Sat 13 Mar 2027, 15:00 UTC. Too close to call. The model has Aston Villa at 38% and Hull at 32%, 6 percentage points apart. Under 16 points the model's named side has won 49% of the matches that had a winner, so it does not call this one. How that line is set.
Aston Villa 38%Draw 31%Hull 32%
Premiumexpected goals and scoreline probabilities on GoalIQ Premium
Lower confidence in this one.
Aston Villa: 36% of last season's minutes were played by players who have since left. The rating is fitted on results, so it has not priced that in yet.
Hull: Promoted side. The model now has a rating of its own, but it is fitted on 5 matches of Premier League football, so it moves a lot with each result.
The model is fitted on results, so it prices a squad by what it did, not by who is in it now.
This prediction was logged before kickoff on 2026-10-06 and will be graded in our public track record, hits and misses included.