Premier League · kickoff Sat 24 Oct 2026, 11:30 UTC. The GoalIQ match model makes Manchester City the favourite at 52% to win.
Aston Villa 23%Draw 25%Manchester City 52%
Premiumexpected goals and scoreline probabilities on GoalIQ Premium
Lower confidence in this one.
Aston Villa: 36% of last season's minutes were played by players who have since left. The rating is fitted on results, so it has not priced that in yet.
The model is fitted on results, so it prices a squad by what it did, not by who is in it now.
This prediction was logged before kickoff on 2026-10-06 and will be graded in our public track record, hits and misses included.