Premier League · kickoff Sat 05 Dec 2026, 15:00 UTC. Too close to call. The model has Chelsea at 41% and Liverpool at 34%, 7 percentage points apart. Under 16 points the model's named side has won 49% of the matches that had a winner, so it does not call this one. How that line is set.
Chelsea 41%Draw 25%Liverpool 34%
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Lower confidence in this one.
Chelsea: 28% of last season's minutes were played by players who have since left. The rating is fitted on results, so it has not priced that in yet.
The model is fitted on results, so it prices a squad by what it did, not by who is in it now.
This prediction was logged before kickoff on 2026-10-06 and will be graded in our public track record, hits and misses included.