Premier League · kickoff Sun 03 Jan 2027, 14:00 UTC. The GoalIQ match model makes Chelsea the favourite at 58% to win.
Chelsea 58%Draw 23%Newcastle United 19%
Premiumexpected goals and scoreline probabilities on GoalIQ Premium
Lower confidence in this one.
Chelsea: 28% of last season's minutes were played by players who have since left. The rating is fitted on results, so it has not priced that in yet.
Newcastle United: 25% of last season's minutes were played by players who have since left. The rating is fitted on results, so it has not priced that in yet.
The model is fitted on results, so it prices a squad by what it did, not by who is in it now.
This prediction was logged before kickoff on 2026-10-06 and will be graded in our public track record, hits and misses included.