Premier League · kickoff Sat 12 Dec 2026, 15:00 UTC. The GoalIQ match model makes Aston Villa the favourite at 47% to win.
Coventry 22%Draw 30%Aston Villa 47%
Premiumexpected goals and scoreline probabilities on GoalIQ Premium
Lower confidence in this one.
Coventry: Promoted side. The model now has a rating of its own, but it is fitted on 5 matches of Premier League football, so it moves a lot with each result.
Aston Villa: 36% of last season's minutes were played by players who have since left. The rating is fitted on results, so it has not priced that in yet.
The model is fitted on results, so it prices a squad by what it did, not by who is in it now.
This prediction was logged before kickoff on 2026-10-06 and will be graded in our public track record, hits and misses included.