Premier League · kickoff Sun 22 Nov 2026, 14:00 UTC. Too close to call. The model has Hull at 31% and Brighton at 38%, 7 percentage points apart. Under 16 points the model's named side has won 49% of the matches that had a winner, so it does not call this one. How that line is set.
Hull 31%Draw 31%Brighton 38%
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Lower confidence in this one.
Hull: Promoted side. The model now has a rating of its own, but it is fitted on 5 matches of Premier League football, so it moves a lot with each result.
Brighton: 26% of last season's minutes were played by players who have since left. The rating is fitted on results, so it has not priced that in yet.
The model is fitted on results, so it prices a squad by what it did, not by who is in it now.
This prediction was logged before kickoff on 2026-10-06 and will be graded in our public track record, hits and misses included.