Premier League · kickoff Sat 13 Mar 2027, 15:00 UTC. Too close to call. The model has Leeds at 37% and Brighton at 36%, 1 percentage point apart. Under 16 points the model's named side has won 49% of the matches that had a winner, so it does not call this one. How that line is set.
Leeds 37%Draw 27%Brighton 36%
Premiumexpected goals and scoreline probabilities on GoalIQ Premium
Lower confidence in this one.
Brighton: 26% of last season's minutes were played by players who have since left. The rating is fitted on results, so it has not priced that in yet.
The model is fitted on results, so it prices a squad by what it did, not by who is in it now.
This prediction was logged before kickoff on 2026-10-06 and will be graded in our public track record, hits and misses included.