Premier League · kickoff Sat 17 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTC. The GoalIQ match model makes Newcastle United the favourite at 52% to win.
Newcastle United 52%Draw 24%Aston Villa 25%
Premiumexpected goals and scoreline probabilities on GoalIQ Premium
Lower confidence in this one.
Newcastle United: 25% of last season's minutes were played by players who have since left. The rating is fitted on results, so it has not priced that in yet.
Aston Villa: 36% of last season's minutes were played by players who have since left. The rating is fitted on results, so it has not priced that in yet.
The model is fitted on results, so it prices a squad by what it did, not by who is in it now.
This prediction was logged before kickoff on 2026-10-06 and will be graded in our public track record, hits and misses included.