Premier League · kickoff Wed 10 Feb 2027, 20:00 UTC. Too close to call. The model has Newcastle United at 46% and Chelsea at 31%, 15 percentage points apart. Under 16 points the model's named side has won 49% of the matches that had a winner, so it does not call this one. How that line is set.
Newcastle United 46%Draw 23%Chelsea 31%
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Lower confidence in this one.
Newcastle United: 25% of last season's minutes were played by players who have since left. The rating is fitted on results, so it has not priced that in yet.
Chelsea: 28% of last season's minutes were played by players who have since left. The rating is fitted on results, so it has not priced that in yet.
The model is fitted on results, so it prices a squad by what it did, not by who is in it now.
This prediction was logged before kickoff on 2026-10-06 and will be graded in our public track record, hits and misses included.