The final, as the model saw it
Before kickoff on 19 July 2026 the model's read on Spain v Argentina was Spain 35.8% · draw 32.0% · Argentina 32.2%. Spain carried the highest probability of the three outcomes. The call was logged publicly before the match and was not edited afterwards. Spain won 1-0 after extra time (Ferran Torres, 106th minute).
The full tournament record
60.6%
correct 1X2 results across all 104 completed World Cup matches (63 of 104)
84%
accuracy in decisive matches (63 of 75 that did not end in a draw)
Knockout matches level after 90 minutes are graded as a draw; extra time and penalty shootouts do not count toward the result. Numbers update automatically from the same public log as the track record page.
The per-match record, hits and misses included, lives on the evergreen predictions page and keeps growing with domestic-league calls: see the full track record.
How the model works
GoalIQ is powered by a Dixon-Coles statistical model combined with a machine-learning expected-goals (xG) ensemble, trained on thousands of real international and club matches. For any fixture it estimates the win / draw / win probability, the expected goals for each team, and the most likely exact scorelines. World Cup 2026 predictions were computed on a neutral-venue basis and refreshed as results came in during the tournament.
World Cup 2026 predictions: FAQ
- Who won the World Cup 2026?
- Spain won the World Cup 2026, beating Argentina 1-0 after extra time in the final on 19 July 2026 (Ferran Torres, 106th minute).
- What did GoalIQ's model predict for the final?
- The model gave Spain the highest probability: 35.8% against 32.0% for the draw and 32.2% for Argentina, logged publicly before kickoff.
- How accurate was the model at the World Cup 2026?
- Every prediction was logged before kickoff. Knockout matches level after 90 minutes are graded as a draw; extra time and penalty shootouts do not count toward the result. The full per-match record, hits and misses included, is public on the track record page.
- How does GoalIQ predict football matches?
- GoalIQ uses a Dixon-Coles statistical model combined with an expected-goals (xG) ensemble, trained on thousands of real international and club matches. It estimates win/draw/win probabilities, expected goals and the most likely scorelines. It is an informational analytics tool, not a betting service.
- Is GoalIQ a betting app?
- No. GoalIQ is an analytics and entertainment app that provides statistical model predictions for informational purposes only. It is not a betting or gambling service and does not provide betting tips or odds.
Important: GoalIQ provides statistical model predictions for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not a betting or gambling service and does not provide betting tips or odds. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees.