FPL expected points, top 100 players ranked

What our match model projects each player to score over GW6-11, shown here for the top 100 of the full 482-player projection. Scoring rate and expected minutes are shown separately, so you can see which one is driving the number. Free, no sign-in, rebuilt every few hours.

Haaland#1 · MCI · 39.1 xP · 15.6m
B.Fernandes#2 · MUN · 34.9 xP · 11.9m
Saka#3 · ARS · 32.2 xP · 9.6m

Gameweek 6 expected points, top 20

One gameweek, not a total. This is what the model projects each player to score in gameweek 6 alone. The gameweek 6 deadline is Sat 10 Oct 10:00 UTC. The projected-points list on our gameweek card is this same list, so you can check it here without an account.

#PlayerTeamPosPriceGW6 xPOpponentStart%
1B.Fernandeson penalties, corners, free kicksTOT (H)MUNMID11.96.8TOT (H)98
2Mbeumo2nd on penalties, corners, free kicksTOT (H)MUNMID7.96.0TOT (H)98
3Sakaon penalties; 2nd on corners, free kicksLEE (H)ARSMID9.65.6LEE (H)99
4Haalandon penaltiesLIV (A)MCIFWD15.65.5LIV (A)93
5GabrielARS 46.5% clean sheet chanceLEE (H)ARSDEF8.05.4LEE (H)99
6Gibbs-Whiteon penalties, free kicksCRY (A)NFOMID8.05.2CRY (A)92
7CalafioriARS 46.5% clean sheet chanceLEE (H)ARSDEF5.94.9LEE (H)98
8BotmanNEW 39.9% clean sheet chanceCOV (A)NEWDEF5.04.8COV (A)100
9ThomasCOV 30.3% clean sheet chanceNEW (H)COVDEF4.04.7NEW (H)100
10Hallon corners, free kicksCOV (A)NEWDEF5.34.7COV (A)100
11Cunha0.32 xGI/90 in 2026/27TOT (H)MUNMID7.94.6TOT (H)98
12TarkowskiEVE 31.9% clean sheet chanceHUL (A)EVEDEF6.24.6HUL (A)94
13Tavernieron corners, free kicksCHE (A)BOUMID6.14.5CHE (A)100
14Davis2nd on free kicksFUL (H)IPSDEF4.04.5FUL (H)97
15HorníčekNEW 39.9% clean sheet chanceCOV (A)NEWGKP5.04.5COV (A)92
16TzolakisHUL 38.6% clean sheet chanceEVE (H)HULGKP4.74.5EVE (H)92
17EganHUL 38.6% clean sheet chanceEVE (H)HULDEF4.14.4EVE (H)90
18De Cuyper !2nd on cornersSUN (A)BHADEF5.04.4SUN (A)95
19AjayiHUL 38.6% clean sheet chanceEVE (H)HULDEF4.24.3EVE (H)90
20Thiagoon penaltiesAVL (A)BREFWD7.84.2AVL (A)95

! = last season's minutes do not describe this player's role here, either a short season or a move to this club.

Under each name: one number behind the projection. Clean sheet chance is his club's for this gameweek, the same number as on goaliq.app/fpl#clean-sheets. Set-piece order (first or second taker only) and xGI per 90 come from FPL's own player pages: this season's once he has 270 Premier League minutes, last season's until then. Last season still counts in the projection.

At most 3 players per club, because FPL will not let you own a fourth.

Top 100 by expected points (of 482 players)

Ranked by total xP over GW6-11. xP/GW is that total divided by 6, not a single-gameweek projection. xP/90 is the scoring rate, Start% is how likely he is to start, xMins combines the two.

#PlayerTeamPosPrice6GW xPxP/GWxP/9010+BlankCeilingStart%xMinsOwn%
1Haalandon penaltiesMCIFWD15.639.16.526.5213%16%10939073.9
2B.Fernandeson penalties, corners, free kicksMUNMID11.934.95.825.8221%9%12989038.4
3Sakaon penalties; 2nd on corners, free kicksARSMID9.632.25.365.5412%19%10998414.2
4GabrielARS 46.5% clean sheet chanceARSDEF8.031.25.205.208%21%9999022.7
5Mbeumo2nd on penalties, corners, free kicksMUNMID7.931.15.185.2117%17%12989020.5
6GuéhiMCI 26.7% clean sheet chanceMCIDEF6.029.14.844.875%42%8979018.1
7CalafioriARS 46.5% clean sheet chanceARSDEF5.928.04.674.777%34%9988350.6
8Gibbs-Whiteon penalties, free kicksNFOMID8.028.04.674.6911%20%10929015.7
9Tavernieron corners, free kicksBOUMID6.127.84.634.827%31%8100836.8
10Thiagoon penaltiesBREFWD7.827.54.594.616%43%795899.2
11ThomasCOV 30.3% clean sheet chanceCOVpromotedDEF4.026.84.474.486%29%8100888.5
12Gvardiol !MCI 26.7% clean sheet chanceMCIDEF5.726.84.474.554%45%7968626.9
13Anderson !0.17 xGI/90 in 2026/27MCIMID6.326.14.354.522%25%797844.0
14Schade2nd on penaltiesBREMID6.226.04.344.354%42%8959012.1
15SilvaBOU 15.3% clean sheet chanceBOUDEF5.025.94.324.325%38%897900.4
16TarkowskiEVE 31.9% clean sheet chanceEVEDEF6.225.54.264.264%24%8949016.9
17Cherkion corners, free kicksMCIMID7.825.54.255.404%44%7926828.4
18E.Le Féeon corners; 2nd on penaltiesSUNMID5.725.44.234.535%38%887833.3
19Stachon corners, free kicksLEEMID6.025.44.234.311%38%692882.5
20RayaARS 46.5% clean sheet chanceARSGKP6.125.44.234.230%36%7939042.3
21Calvert-Lewinon penaltiesLEEFWD6.024.94.154.442%56%6908124.7
22Barnes0.22 xGI/90 in 2026/27NEWturnoverMID6.124.84.134.135%32%8100905.9
23TzolakisHUL 38.6% clean sheet chanceHULpromotedGKP4.724.64.104.100%29%7929012.9
24ThiawNEW 39.9% clean sheet chanceNEWturnoverDEF5.024.54.084.085%31%8100902.2
25De Cuyper !2nd on cornersBHAturnoverDEF5.024.54.084.336%39%8958228.1
26Cunha0.32 xGI/90 in 2026/27MUNMID7.924.44.084.247%23%998835.8
27Palmeron penalties; 2nd on free kicksCHEturnoverMID9.724.44.064.887%50%8676425.3
28Rudonion free kicksCOVpromotedMID4.924.34.054.575%35%888680.1
29Ødegaard !0.58 xGI/90 in 2026/27ARSMID6.824.34.044.394%25%8987519.8
30Großon penalties, corners, free kicksBHAturnoverMID5.924.24.044.214%28%8888629.7
31Dewsbury-Hall2nd on cornersEVEMID6.624.24.044.042%36%7100905.9
32BotmanNEW 39.9% clean sheet chanceNEWturnoverDEF5.024.24.034.034%26%8100900.7
33Szoboszlaion penalties, corners, free kicksLIVMID6.924.14.024.134%36%8918632.5
34Rogers !0.60 xGI/90 in 2026/27CHEturnoverMID7.824.14.024.085%40%8938840.8
35Wissa !2nd on penaltiesNEWturnoverFWD6.224.14.014.165%52%7908618.7
36Gonzaloon penaltiesFULFWD6.023.93.984.348%42%888804.2
37Enzo !0.30 xGI/90 in 2026/27MCIMID6.923.83.974.714%50%781723.7
38Hallon corners, free kicksNEWturnoverDEF5.323.83.963.963%29%81009017.6
39EganHUL 38.6% clean sheet chanceHULpromotedDEF4.123.83.963.952%30%890867.0
40DasilvaCOV 30.3% clean sheet chanceCOVpromotedDEF4.023.73.953.955%40%8100890.7
41Barryon penaltiesEVEFWD5.723.63.934.284%54%787818.4
42Buendíaon penalties, free kicks; 2nd on cornersAVLturnoverMID5.923.43.914.084%34%897791.0
43HillBOU 15.3% clean sheet chanceBOUDEF5.523.43.893.892%42%7100900.8
44RúbenMCI 26.7% clean sheet chanceMCIDEF5.523.43.893.951%55%696891.9
45Semenyo2nd on penaltiesMCIMID8.423.33.894.503%55%7746715.1
46AjayiHUL 38.6% clean sheet chanceHULpromotedDEF4.223.23.873.885%39%8908713.9
47Wirtz2nd on corners, free kicksLIVMID7.323.13.864.073%45%791805.7
48MukieleSUN 20.9% clean sheet chanceSUNDEF5.423.13.844.124%44%887841.9
49Trafford !LEE 14.7% clean sheet chanceLEEGKP5.023.03.833.830%47%692905.5
50Isak !2nd on penaltiesLIVFWD9.122.83.804.655%50%7696122.1
51VuskovicBHA 30.8% clean sheet chanceBHAturnoverDEF5.022.83.803.914%38%896843.8
52Rayan !0.27 xGI/90 in 2026/27BOUMID6.322.73.793.853%49%7100861.6
53DonnarummaMCI 26.7% clean sheet chanceMCIGKP5.522.73.793.780%54%692907.6
54VirgilLIV 19% clean sheet chanceLIVDEF6.522.63.773.773%42%7979016.2
55Evanilson0.29 xGI/90 in 2026/27BOUFWD6.022.63.763.836%48%795873.2
56Martinez !CHE 18.5% clean sheet chanceCHEturnoverGKP5.022.53.753.750%46%693904.7
57TruffertBOU 15.3% clean sheet chanceBOUDEF5.422.53.753.752%47%798903.0
58KelleherBRE 21.7% clean sheet chanceBREGKP5.022.43.733.730%41%792906.1
59Enciso0.46 xGI/90 in 2026/27IPSpromotedMID5.522.33.723.865%39%899820.8
60RichardsCRY 19.8% clean sheet chanceCRYDEF4.922.33.723.873%43%795860.6
61MuharemovićLEE 14.7% clean sheet chanceLEEDEF5.022.33.713.842%51%693874.3
62HorníčekNEW 39.9% clean sheet chanceNEWturnoverGKP5.022.33.713.720%25%792901.5
63KhalailiCRY 19.8% clean sheet chanceCRYDEF5.022.23.714.274%55%866700.3
64Garneron corners, free kicks; 2nd on penaltiesEVEMID6.022.23.703.801%34%692810.2
65SuzukiAVL 25.5% clean sheet chanceAVLturnoverGKP5.022.13.683.680%39%793901.9
66Riceon corners, free kicksARSMID7.422.13.684.374%42%7696311.5
67LammensMUN 38.3% clean sheet chanceMUNGKP4.922.03.673.670%31%792909.8
68Branthwaite !EVE 31.9% clean sheet chanceEVEDEF5.521.83.633.642%37%893902.5
69Rushworth !COV 30.3% clean sheet chanceCOVpromotedGKP4.521.83.633.790%46%688860.8
70Davis2nd on free kicksIPSpromotedDEF4.021.83.633.639%40%997907.0
71PickfordEVE 31.9% clean sheet chanceEVEGKP5.521.83.633.630%37%792909.2
72Ndiaye !0.23 xGI/90 in 2026/27MCIMID5.821.83.634.432%52%770726.6
73Emersonn2nd on penaltiesIPSpromotedFWD5.521.83.634.665%39%788633.7
74RoefsSUN 20.9% clean sheet chanceSUNGKP4.921.73.623.620%54%692902.4
75LenoFUL 25.2% clean sheet chanceFULGKP4.521.73.623.730%41%789873.4
76Gileson free kicksHULpromotedDEF4.021.63.603.602%39%790892.9
77Lacroix !CHE 18.5% clean sheet chanceCHEturnoverDEF5.921.53.594.162%45%778746.8
78Xhaka2nd on corners, free kicksSUNMID5.521.43.563.841%38%685833.6
79Kostoulas !0.36 xGI/90 in 2026/27BHAturnoverFWD5.621.33.554.144%50%778724.7
80Neto2nd on cornersCHEturnoverMID6.521.33.553.943%50%785751.4
81Scott2nd on cornersBOUMID6.121.23.534.272%64%550455.6
82AmpaduLEEMID5.421.13.523.800%42%587840.9
83Havertz !0.42 xGI/90 in 2026/27ARSFWD7.620.93.494.165%53%768648.1
84BallardSUN 20.9% clean sheet chanceSUNDEF4.920.93.484.293%54%764632.5
85VerbruggenBHA 30.8% clean sheet chanceBHAturnoverGKP4.520.83.463.620%42%7878621.6
86Murillo2nd on free kicksNFODEF5.520.73.463.504%35%898892.1
87BentancurTOTMID5.520.43.413.721%45%583760.2
88Tielemans !0.27 xGI/90 in 2026/27MUNMID5.820.43.403.713%36%792771.5
89McGinnon cornersAVLturnoverMID5.420.43.393.522%45%791852.2
90King !0.43 xGI/90 in 2026/27FULMID5.620.43.393.733%45%786782.9
91MaguireMUN 38.3% clean sheet chanceMUNDEF4.820.33.393.714%38%885828.6
92Janelt !0.20 xGI/90 in 2026/27BREMID5.020.33.383.912%39%682782.5
93SchusterBRE 21.7% clean sheet chanceBREDEF4.520.33.384.443%45%757660.3
94A.BeckerLIV 19% clean sheet chanceLIVGKP5.520.33.383.380%56%692904.2
95Marmoush !2nd on penaltiesTOTFWD7.020.23.373.982%57%681742.1
96PinnockCOV 30.3% clean sheet chanceCOVpromotedDEF4.520.13.354.112%46%874720.1
97Slateron cornersHULpromotedMID4.520.03.343.382%41%791865.2
98JustinLEE 14.7% clean sheet chanceLEEDEF4.520.03.333.701%62%686811.4
99PalaciosIPSpromotedMID5.020.03.333.722%40%781750.1
100Kinsky !TOT 9.4% clean sheet chanceTOTGKP4.519.93.323.310%66%4929017.1

! = last season's minutes do not describe this player's role here, either a short season or a move to this club.

Under each name: one number behind the projection. Clean sheet chance is his club's for this gameweek, the same number as on goaliq.app/fpl#clean-sheets. Set-piece order (first or second taker only) and xGI per 90 come from FPL's own player pages: this season's once he has 270 Premier League minutes, last season's until then. Last season still counts in the projection.

Flagged teams. Coventry, Hull, Ipswich: Promoted side. The model now has a rating of its own, but it is fitted on 5 matches of Premier League football, so it moves a lot with each result. Aston Villa: 36% of last season's minutes were played by players who have since left. The rating is fitted on results, so it has not priced that in yet. Brighton: 26% of last season's minutes were played by players who have since left. The rating is fitted on results, so it has not priced that in yet. Chelsea: 28% of last season's minutes were played by players who have since left. The rating is fitted on results, so it has not priced that in yet. Newcastle United: 25% of last season's minutes were played by players who have since left. The rating is fitted on results, so it has not priced that in yet. The flag means the projection is working with weaker information. It does not say which way that moves the number, because that is the part the data would not support. Their players carry a tag in the table, 33 of them in this top 100.

Start% near 50 means the model is split. Those totals depend on the team news. They are not a settled projection. A keeper on 51% is not a 45-minute keeper.

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Updated 07 Oct 2026 · · GoalIQ model predictions are statistical estimates for fun and analysis, not betting advice, and not a gambling service.