Everyone's buying the Arsenal defence. Read the minutes column first.

Everyone's landed on the same read this week: Arsenal's defence is the thing to own. Our board agrees on the player. Gabriel is the highest projected defender we have, 30.1 points over the next six gameweeks, at £8.0m and 29.7% owned.

The minutes column is the part I'd read twice. Gabriel projects at 83 minutes a game with an 84% chance of starting. Tarkowski is on 90 and 93%, Senesi on 89 and 98%, Kadıoğlu on 89 and 96%. Three defenders at £6.0m or under, every one of them likelier to play than the £8.0m man.

Tarkowski projects 27.5 over the same six gameweeks, so the whole premium is 2.6 points for £2.0m, and you can do that subtraction on the page yourself. If your squad has the money spare, the model won't argue with Gabriel. The question is what the £2.0m funds instead at the top of the midfield table.

If the plan is Arsenal clean sheets on a budget, our numbers say no. Hincapie is the only other Arsenal defender who makes the top-100 page at all, at a 63% start chance and 58 expected minutes. That's rotation, and a cheap clean sheet punt doesn't survive rotation.

A lot of this week's case cites Sunday at Wembley. Our model never saw that match. The Community Shield isn't a league fixture, so it sits outside the data the model is fitted on, and it didn't move a single number above.

One caveat we'd rather say than have you find: expected minutes are built from last season's starts, so they're slower than the transfer market. Where that matters, the page flags the row.