Brentford are the favourite against Chelsea on Friday. I'd have guessed that one wrong.

Brentford 48%, draw 23%, Chelsea 29%, at home on Friday night. The page doesn't push the call either. It flags this one as lower confidence, because 28% of the minutes Chelsea played last season belong to players who have since left, and the rating is fitted on results, so it hasn't priced that in yet. We can't tell you which way that moves the number.

On the gameweek 5 expected points list Brentford have two in the top ten, Thiago second at 5.6 and Schade seventh at 5.1. Chelsea's best is João Pedro in 14th. It's the same model underneath, so read it as one number twice. The page gives penalties as the reason under both Brentford names. goaliq.app/fpl/expected-points#gw-xp