Bruno has blanked in four gameweeks out of five and the model gives him a 9% chance of a fifth

Across five gameweeks Bruno Fernandes has more points than we projected, and he's been worth owning in one of them. He got 23 in gameweek 2 and 2 in each of the other four, weeks where we had him above 5 every time.

I wouldn't call the 2-pointers bad luck. His xG didn't reach 0.3 in any of those four games, and in the 23-point game it was 2.02. He hasn't been getting the chances. Every gameweek is on goaliq.app/fpl/points, projected against actual, with his xG in the same row.

For gameweek 6 the model has him first anyway. 6.8 at home to Spurs, a 21% chance of 10 or more and a 9% chance of 2 or fewer. Both are the best in the top 100. He's on penalties, corners and free kicks and 97% likely to start.

I don't trust the 9%. He's scored exactly 2 in four of five, and I said the same after gameweek 3, when the model called him the safest pick on the board, 82% to get 3 or more. He got 2. That call is still on goaliq.app/fpl with the miss next to it. Five games might be too few to read anything into. It might also be that his role has changed and the model is slow to see it. I don't know which yet.