We froze FPL's own numbers next to ours. They beat us on the players who never played.

This was the first gameweek we froze FPL's own expected points next to ours, so the two get graded on the same 501 players. Ours missed by 1.54 points a player, FPL's ep_next by 1.69. Thinner than I expected after a summer of fitting.

Underneath it's worse. On the 195 players who never got on the pitch FPL was closer, 0.52 against our 0.95, and closer again on the 13 hauls. We only take the middle back, the blanks and the 3 to 9 point rows. The two ends are where you actually pick players.

The card calls went one from four. Isak was the ceiling pick at 11 and got 13. Fernandes is the one I'd argue with: 82% to reach 3, and he got 2.