FPL's own numbers have beaten ours two weeks running

2026-10-02

On goaliq.app/fpl there's a table that grades every player we projected against FPL's own expected points, frozen at the same time as ours. That number comes from FPL's data feed. You won't find it on the FPL website. We were closer in gameweek 3, and I wrote about that on 9 September. FPL has been closer in both gameweeks since.

It was 1.65 against our 1.68 in gameweek 4 and 1.59 against our 1.62 in gameweek 5. That's 0.03 a player, which isn't much to lose by. It's still two weeks running. Over the three we're ahead, and all of that comes from gameweek 3, 1.54 against 1.69. Plain FPL form, the number on every player card, is in the same table, and it beat us in gameweeks 4 and 5 too.

The calls above that table I'm happier with, for now. Eight of them were 10-point calls, the captain pick and the boom-or-bust pick each week, printed at 7% to 31%. All eight add up to 113%, so about one haul between them, and there's been one: Bruno Fernandes, 23 points in gameweek 2.

The calls table and the accuracy table, free, no sign-in.

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Updated 07 Oct 2026 · GoalIQ model predictions are statistical estimates for fun and analysis, not betting advice, and not a gambling service.