Leeds have a better clean sheet chance than Liverpool this week. The new line under the opponent shows why.

Leeds have a better clean sheet chance this week than Liverpool. 38.6% against 37.2%, and the reason isn't Leeds. From today the clean sheet table carries a second line under each opponent: the goals our match model projects for both teams. Leeds 1.77 v Newcastle 0.95, Liverpool 1.94 v Fulham 0.99. The clean sheet number doesn't care what Leeds or Liverpool do at the other end. It reads the opponent's figure and nothing else.

Arsenal at Sunderland is still the biggest one on the board at 51%, and now you can see the whole of it. Sunderland 0.67. Arsenal's own 1.64 never enters the number.

The game I'd actually use the new line on is Tottenham v Everton. Everton 1.20, Spurs 1.19, so the clean sheet chances land at 30.6% and 30%. The match page won't call it either: 34% Spurs, 35% Everton, one point apart, goaliq.app/predictions/premier-league/tottenham-vs-everton. There is no defensive edge to buy in that game on either side.

What the line doesn't do is tell you who plays. It's a team number, so it prices the fixture and not the rotation, and at 30% either way the rotation is the part I'd worry about.